So it looks like Blu-ray may be on its way to "winning " the format war. If rumors that Paramount will be exercising a clause in their HD DVD contract allowing them to switch sides in the event Warner does first (which of course they have) are true it means that some of the most valuable home entertainment properties around (Star Trek and CSI) will be going with them. It's not a stretch to say HD DVD is done, so let's look at what Blu-ray is winning.

For starters they'll be the proud owners of less than a 4% share of the movie/TV release market. Of course the studios and consumer electronics manufacturers will tell you that this is merely a product of the two competing formats, and to an extent there's merit to this, but not in the way they mean. The problem with the so-called format war is that both sides have spent all their time competing against each other rather than competing for customer interest. The amount of FUD and just plain BS spewing from both sides is what's turned off those who have decided to put off picking sides.

 So if we assume a winner to the war, what do they have to do to win over consumers? to begin with they need to convince current HDTV owners that DVD and HD Video on Demand aren't high enough quality for them. If those sources are good enough there's no reason to buy into a new format and the discussion is over. They also need to focus on getting HDTV prices under control.

For many people it's not even realistic to buy a new TV. In order to replace my 27 " analog TV with something comparable I'd need a 30 " - 32 " HDTV, which would cost a minimum of $500 - $600. Call me old fashioned, but a $500 TV is still a luxury item to me. Especially when the reaons it's $500 is to pay for the R &D required to keep developing bigger and better screens for people who can afford to pay thousands of dollars. And I'm not alone. Many people either can't or won't pay that kind of money for a TV.

Let's also not forget the Blu-ray and HD DVD aren't the only new HD players. Besides the longshot HD VMD format from Asia, Video on Demand across the internet from Vudu and Microsoft's Xbox Live Marketplace are able to deliver both standard and high definition video to either a dedicated set-top box or game console. Amazon offers downloads directly to newer TiVos, although so far no HD content is available. While these services probably don't compete for disc sales, they certainly threaten the rental market, being more immediate and accessible without leaving your living room.

So perhaps Blu-ray has beaten HD DVD, but don't mistake that for victory. Right now DVD is still on the winning side, with sales revenue that dwarfs any HD medium and rental numbers with rounding errors greater than the number of HD videos downloaded. It's glory days may be behind it, but so are the circumstances that made it the king of the hill. Rather than selling a format that amounts to DVD Plus, the home entertainment industry needs to assess what consumers are asking for that DVD doesn't give them and find new (and varied) ways to supply it.

Rich Fiscus